Radiance Trends and Magma Flux at Hot Volcanoes

In this thesis I use a range of remote sensing data, ranging from simple ground-based radiometers, through thermal imaging cameras to the latest space-based high-resolution multispectral instruments for the observation of active volcanic phenomena. I consider small scale degassing events within the Pu'u'O'o crater of Kilauea volcano, and provide a critique of the often used "dual-band" method for obtaining sub-pixel thermal information. I go on to use improvements of this method to provide the basis of a comparison of the existing and well understood Landsat7 ETM+ with the new EO-1 ALI with respect to volcanic observations. This thesis falls into two main sections. In the first section I use thermal data from an array of simple radiometers operated by the University of Hawaii and the USGS Hawaii Volcano Observatory, coupled with basic RSAM data to identify degassing events at a small vent within the Pu'u'O'o crater. I relate these events to the semi-diurnal and fortnightly lunisolar tides. I show that there is a very weak relationship between these events and the semi-diurnal tide, but conversely a stronger relationship exists between the degassing events and the fortnightly tide. I show that these observations are consistent with previous observations of the fluctuating levels of the 1919 Halema'uma'u lava lake on Kilauea, and may be used as part of a synergistic approach to aid understanding of the complex Pu'u'O'o plumbing system. I go on to use thermal diffusion modelling to determine the mass of ejecta associated with certain degassing events that appear to possess well defined cooling curves in the radiometer data. By using software modelling iteratively applied to thermal diffusion equations, I show that the time taken for the temperature record from a spattering event to return to the ambient temperature is a function of the mean size of spatter blebs associated with the event. I use both laboratory tests and actual data recorded from a two month study period in 2001. This section of the thesis highlights that it is possible to obtain high-value information of active volcanic events without the cost of satellite data. The second section of this thesis deals mainly with analysis of the dual-band method for extracting sub-pixel thermal information from multispectral satellite data. I use high-resolution ground based thermal imagery to generate simulated EO-1 ALI pixels, which can be adjusted to simulate a variety of likely volcanic scenarios. The second section of this thesis deals mainly with analysis of the dual-band method for extracting sub-pixel thermal information from multispectral satellite data. I use high-resolution ground based thermal imagery to generate simulated E0-1 ALI pixels, which can be adjusted to simulate a variety of likely volcanic scenarios. I apply the dual band method to this simulated imagery and analyse the response in detail. I show that it is preferable to use relative estimates of sub-pixel thermal structure rather than the exact estimates provided of the resulting factors. I also show how the results returned by the dual-band method may change ifthe lava flow is angled with respect to the instrument, due to the combined effects of ·the slope angle down which the flow is moving and the instrument look angle. I finally assess the response of the recent E0-1 AdvanGed Land Imager to the remote sensing oflava flows in comparison to the established Landsat7 ETM+. I use the dual-band technique as the basis of this comparison, despite the flaws previously discussed, because it proviµes a valid means of comparison that remains valid if used in a relative fashion. I show that the E0-1 ALI is of great use for the remote sensing of lava flows due to the provision of extra channels within the SWIR, not present on the ETM+. These extra channels provide better solutions to the dual-band method as they are less susceptible to saturation and better placed within the spectrum for detection of volcanic products, than those of the ETM+

Examination of the Cytotoxic and Embryotoxic Potential and Underlying Mechanisms of Next-Generation Synthetic Trioxolane and Tetraoxane Antimalarials

Semisynthetic artemisinin-based therapies are the first-line treatment for P. falciparum malaria, but next-generation synthetic drug candidates are urgently required to improve availability and respond to the emergence of artemisinin-resistant parasites. Artemisinins are embryotoxic in animal models and induce apoptosis in sensitive mammalian cells. Understanding the cytotoxic propensities of antimalarial drug candidates is crucial to their successful development and utilization. Here, we demonstrate that, similarly to the model artemisinin artesunate (ARS), a synthetic tetraoxane drug candidate (RKA182) and a trioxolane equivalent (FBEG100) induce embryotoxicity and depletion of primitive erythroblasts in a rodent model. We also show that RKA182, FBEG100 and ARS are cytotoxic toward a panel of established and primary human cell lines, with caspase-dependent apoptosis and caspase-independent necrosis underlying the induction of cell death. Although the toxic effects of RKA182 and FBEG100 proceed more rapidly and are relatively less cell-selective than that of ARS, all three compounds are shown to be dependent upon heme, iron and oxidative stress for their ability to induce cell death. However, in contrast to previously studied artemisinins, the toxicity of RKA182 and FBEG100 is shown to be independent of general chemical decomposition. Although tetraoxanes and trioxolanes have shown promise as next-generation antimalarials, the data described here indicate that adverse effects associated with artemisinins, including embryotoxicity, cannot be ruled out with these novel compounds, and a full understanding of their toxicological actions will be central to the continuing design and development of safe and effective drug candidates which could prove important in the fight against malaria

Implementation of corticosteroids in treating COVID-19 in the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK:prospective observational cohort study

BACKGROUND: Dexamethasone was the first intervention proven to reduce mortality in patients with COVID-19 being treated in hospital. We aimed to evaluate the adoption of corticosteroids in the treatment of COVID-19 in the UK after the RECOVERY trial publication on June 16, 2020, and to identify discrepancies in care. METHODS: We did an audit of clinical implementation of corticosteroids in a prospective, observational, cohort study in 237 UK acute care hospitals between March 16, 2020, and April 14, 2021, restricted to patients aged 18 years or older with proven or high likelihood of COVID-19, who received supplementary oxygen. The primary outcome was administration of dexamethasone, prednisolone, hydrocortisone, or methylprednisolone. This study is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN66726260. FINDINGS: Between June 17, 2020, and April 14, 2021, 47 795 (75·2%) of 63 525 of patients on supplementary oxygen received corticosteroids, higher among patients requiring critical care than in those who received ward care (11 185 [86·6%] of 12 909 vs 36 415 [72·4%] of 50 278). Patients 50 years or older were significantly less likely to receive corticosteroids than those younger than 50 years (adjusted odds ratio 0·79 [95% CI 0·70–0·89], p=0·0001, for 70–79 years; 0·52 [0·46–0·58], p80 years), independent of patient demographics and illness severity. 84 (54·2%) of 155 pregnant women received corticosteroids. Rates of corticosteroid administration increased from 27·5% in the week before June 16, 2020, to 75–80% in January, 2021. INTERPRETATION: Implementation of corticosteroids into clinical practice in the UK for patients with COVID-19 has been successful, but not universal. Patients older than 70 years, independent of illness severity, chronic neurological disease, and dementia, were less likely to receive corticosteroids than those who were younger, as were pregnant women. This could reflect appropriate clinical decision making, but the possibility of inequitable access to life-saving care should be considered. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research and UK Medical Research Council

Para-infectious brain injury in COVID-19 persists at follow-up despite attenuated cytokine and autoantibody responses

To understand neurological complications of COVID-19 better both acutely and for recovery, we measured markers of brain injury, inflammatory mediators, and autoantibodies in 203 hospitalised participants; 111 with acute sera (1–11 days post-admission) and 92 convalescent sera (56 with COVID-19-associated neurological diagnoses). Here we show that compared to 60 uninfected controls, tTau, GFAP, NfL, and UCH-L1 are increased with COVID-19 infection at acute timepoints and NfL and GFAP are significantly higher in participants with neurological complications. Inflammatory mediators (IL-6, IL-12p40, HGF, M-CSF, CCL2, and IL-1RA) are associated with both altered consciousness and markers of brain injury. Autoantibodies are more common in COVID-19 than controls and some (including against MYL7, UCH-L1, and GRIN3B) are more frequent with altered consciousness. Additionally, convalescent participants with neurological complications show elevated GFAP and NfL, unrelated to attenuated systemic inflammatory mediators and to autoantibody responses. Overall, neurological complications of COVID-19 are associated with evidence of neuroglial injury in both acute and late disease and these correlate with dysregulated innate and adaptive immune responses acutely

The P323L substitution in the SARS-CoV-2 polymerase (NSP12) confers a selective advantage during infection

Background The mutational landscape of SARS-CoV-2 varies at the dominant viral genome sequence and minor genomic variant population. During the COVID-19 pandemic, an early substitution in the genome was the D614G change in the spike protein, associated with an increase in transmissibility. Genomes with D614G are accompanied by a P323L substitution in the viral polymerase (NSP12). However, P323L is not thought to be under strong selective pressure. Results Investigation of P323L/D614G substitutions in the population shows rapid emergence during the containment phase and early surge phase during the first wave. These substitutions emerge from minor genomic variants which become dominant viral genome sequence. This is investigated in vivo and in vitro using SARS-CoV-2 with P323 and D614 in the dominant genome sequence and L323 and G614 in the minor variant population. During infection, there is rapid selection of L323 into the dominant viral genome sequence but not G614. Reverse genetics is used to create two viruses (either P323 or L323) with the same genetic background. L323 shows greater abundance of viral RNA and proteins and a smaller plaque morphology than P323. Conclusions These data suggest that P323L is an important contribution in the emergence of variants with transmission advantages. Sequence analysis of viral populations suggests it may be possible to predict the emergence of a new variant based on tracking the frequency of minor variant genomes. The ability to predict an emerging variant of SARS-CoV-2 in the global landscape may aid in the evaluation of medical countermeasures and non-pharmaceutical interventions

Viral coinfections in hospitalized coronavirus disease 2019 patients recruited to the international severe acute respiratory and emerging infections consortium WHO clinical characterisation protocol UK study

Background We conducted this study to assess the prevalence of viral coinfection in a well characterized cohort of hospitalized coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients and to investigate the impact of coinfection on disease severity. Methods Multiplex real-time polymerase chain reaction testing for endemic respiratory viruses was performed on upper respiratory tract samples from 1002 patients with COVID-19, aged <1 year to 102 years old, recruited to the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK study. Comprehensive demographic, clinical, and outcome data were collected prospectively up to 28 days post discharge. Results A coinfecting virus was detected in 20 (2.0%) participants. Multivariable analysis revealed no significant risk factors for coinfection, although this may be due to rarity of coinfection. Likewise, ordinal logistic regression analysis did not demonstrate a significant association between coinfection and increased disease severity. Conclusions Viral coinfection was rare among hospitalized COVID-19 patients in the United Kingdom during the first 18 months of the pandemic. With unbiased prospective sampling, we found no evidence of an association between viral coinfection and disease severity. Public health interventions disrupted normal seasonal transmission of respiratory viruses; relaxation of these measures mean it will be important to monitor the prevalence and impact of respiratory viral coinfections going forward

Delayed mucosal anti-viral responses despite robust peripheral inflammation in fatal COVID-19

Background While inflammatory and immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection in peripheral blood are extensively described, responses at the upper respiratory mucosal site of initial infection are relatively poorly defined. We sought to identify mucosal cytokine/chemokine signatures that distinguished COVID-19 severity categories, and relate these to disease progression and peripheral inflammation. Methods We measured 35 cytokines and chemokines in nasal samples from 274 patients hospitalised with COVID-19. Analysis considered the timing of sampling during disease, as either the early (0-5 days post-symptom onset) or late (6-20 days post-symptom onset). Results Patients that survived severe COVID-19 showed IFN-dominated mucosal immune responses (IFN-γ, CXCL10 and CXCL13) early in infection. These early mucosal responses were absent in patients that would progress to fatal disease despite equivalent SARS-CoV-2 viral load. Mucosal inflammation in later disease was dominated by IL-2, IL-10, IFN-γ, and IL-12p70, which scaled with severity but did not differentiate patients who would survive or succumb to disease. Cytokines and chemokines in the mucosa showed distinctions from responses evident in the peripheral blood, particularly during fatal disease. Conclusions Defective early mucosal anti-viral responses anticipate fatal COVID-19 but are not associated with viral load. Early mucosal immune responses may define the trajectory of severe COVID-19

A prenylated dsRNA sensor protects against severe COVID-19

Inherited genetic factors can influence the severity of COVID-19, but the molecular explanation underpinning a genetic association is often unclear. Intracellular antiviral defenses can inhibit the replication of viruses and reduce disease severity. To better understand the antiviral defenses relevant to COVID-19, we used interferon-stimulated gene (ISG) expression screening to reveal that OAS1, through RNase L, potently inhibits SARS-CoV-2. We show that a common splice-acceptor SNP (Rs10774671) governs whether people express prenylated OAS1 isoforms that are membrane-associated and sense specific regions of SARS-CoV-2 RNAs, or only express cytosolic, nonprenylated OAS1 that does not efficiently detect SARS-CoV-2. Importantly, in hospitalized patients, expression of prenylated OAS1 was associated with protection from severe COVID-19, suggesting this antiviral defense is a major component of a protective antiviral response

Factors Associated with Revision Surgery after Internal Fixation of Hip Fractures

Background: Femoral neck fractures are associated with high rates of revision surgery after management with internal fixation. Using data from the Fixation using Alternative Implants for the Treatment of Hip fractures (FAITH) trial evaluating methods of internal fixation in patients with femoral neck fractures, we investigated associations between baseline and surgical factors and the need for revision surgery to promote healing, relieve pain, treat infection or improve function over 24 months postsurgery. Additionally, we investigated factors associated with (1) hardware removal and (2) implant exchange from cancellous screws (CS) or sliding hip screw (SHS) to total hip arthroplasty, hemiarthroplasty, or another internal fixation device. Methods: We identified 15 potential factors a priori that may be associated with revision surgery, 7 with hardware removal, and 14 with implant exchange. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses in our investigation. Results: Factors associated with increased risk of revision surgery included: female sex, [hazard ratio (HR) 1.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.25-2.50; P = 0.001], higher body mass index (fo